In a stunning overnight military operation, Trump captured Venezuelan President Maduro and announced the US will “run Venezuela” while American oil companies rebuild its infrastructure. This positions Chevron as the only US major operating in the world’s largest proven oil reserves (303 billion barrels, larger than Saudi Arabia’s 267 billion).
The controversy? Chevron stayed in Venezuela through decades of sanctions while competitors fled, but oil companies reportedly “firmly declined” when asked about returning last month, remembering the billions lost when Venezuela nationalized their assets in 2007.
Markets open Monday morning with Chevron caught between a once-in-a-generation opportunity to unlock reserves more than six times the size of US holdings and a geopolitically explosive, decade-long, $100+ billion infrastructure rebuild while oil prices fell nearly 20% in 2025. Windfall or trap?
Here's how the community voted
Chevron is America’s sole oil company operating in Venezuela’s 303 billion barrel reserves (larger than Saudi Arabia).
With ~$313B market cap, 4.1M barrels/day global production, and debt-to-equity of just 0.22, Chevron has the means to invest. Proven track record executing megaprojects across the Permian, Gulf of Mexico, and Kazakhstan.
Venezuela is pure upside to an already massive business. Currently contributing just 4% of total output, ramping to 500K-1M barrels/day would add 15-30% to global production with decades-long revenue from the world’s largest oil reserves.
US oil companies reportedly “firmly declined” when asked about returning to Venezuela last month, remembering the billions lost when Chavez nationalized assets in 2007. Venezuela has a 50-year track record of seizing foreign oil investments.
Experts estimate 10+ years and $100B+ to rebuild Venezuela’s deteriorating infrastructure. Oil fell 20% in 2025, markets are oversupplied, and adding millions of Venezuelan barrels could reduce prices further.
Over the past 18 months, insiders sold 1.1M shares with zero purchases, including director John Hess selling $83M in November 2025.
Chevron is America’s sole oil company operating in Venezuela’s 303 billion barrel reserves (larger than Saudi Arabia).
With ~$313B market cap, 4.1M barrels/day global production, and debt-to-equity of just 0.22, Chevron has the means to invest. Proven track record executing megaprojects across the Permian, Gulf of Mexico, and Kazakhstan.
Venezuela is pure upside to an already massive business. Currently contributing just 4% of total output, ramping to 500K-1M barrels/day would add 15-30% to global production with decades-long revenue from the world’s largest oil reserves.
US oil companies reportedly “firmly declined” when asked about returning to Venezuela last month, remembering the billions lost when Chavez nationalized assets in 2007. Venezuela has a 50-year track record of seizing foreign oil investments.
Experts estimate 10+ years and $100B+ to rebuild Venezuela’s deteriorating infrastructure. Oil fell 20% in 2025, markets are oversupplied, and adding millions of Venezuelan barrels could reduce prices further.
Over the past 18 months, insiders sold 1.1M shares with zero purchases, including director John Hess selling $83M in November 2025.
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a bit too risky in my opinion given potential political instability in the country.
I'd land somewhere in between diamond and dud, but I can't bring myself to say "dud". Chevron remains one of the most financially disciplined companies in the world, has increased its dividend for something like 35+ straight years to ~4.5%, and is forecasting improved cash flow going forward in 2026+. That said, its P/E is higher than peers and I'd be concerned about requiring near perfect execution, along with the the downside risk on earnings related to drops in crude prices. Depends on any given portfolio goals and balance as to whether this is good value for the income...
Potentially a good buy but I had to go 💩 just based on the P/E really. Shell trades at 16, Exxon 17… similar lower ratios for other European oil plays like ENI and Repsol… so if i was looking to buy in this space I’d start by looking there.
The Venezuela thing just seems absurd. Maybe some interesting companies that would benefit from the infrastructure spending if any of that build out actually comes to pass?