La Mer. Tom Ford. Clinique. Jo Malone. Le Labo. They all belong to one company, and that company has lost 72% of its value in four years.
Estée Lauder peaked at $350 in January 2022. It closed yesterday at $98 after jumping 16% on earnings that beat across the board. Revenue of $3.63 billion topped estimates. EPS doubled year over year. The new CEO raised fiscal 2027 guidance above what Wall Street expected.
This is the fourth straight quarter Estée Lauder has beaten expectations. Fragrance revenue grew 10%. China sales grew 12%. Free cash flow more than doubled to $1.3 billion. But after yesterday’s pop, the stock trades at roughly 30x forward earnings - more expensive than L’Oréal, which has three times the revenue and isn’t mid-restructuring. The Lauder family still controls 82% of the vote.
Estée Lauder is finally putting up numbers again. But the stock is priced like the last four years never happened.
Here's how the community voted
Estée Lauder has beaten earnings four quarters in a row. Q4 revenue of $3.63 billion topped estimates by $80 million and adjusted EPS doubled year over year. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for $3.10 to $3.35 in adjusted EPS - above the $3.18 consensus - with organic sales growth of 3% to 5% and an operating margin target of 12.7% to 13.5%.
The brands are selling again. Fragrance revenue - led by Le Labo, Tom Ford, and Kilian Paris - grew 10% for the full year. Mainland China sales grew 12% to $3 billion. Asia travel retail is recovering. Cost cuts are on track to save over $1 billion annually. Multiple analysts raised price targets after the beat - Goldman Sachs to $112, Telsey to $108.
At $98, the stock sits 72% below its 2022 peak of $350. Free cash flow more than doubled to $1.3 billion. Full-year revenue hit $15 billion with gross margin at 75.5%, up 150 basis points. The new CEO’s “Beauty Reimagined” plan is pushing into Amazon and TikTok while pulling out of department stores.
At roughly 30x forward earnings - a premium to L’Oréal - Estée Lauder is priced for a turnaround that isn’t done yet. Operating margin is 11.2%, well below the 15%+ it held before the decline. Tariffs added a $100 million headwind this year. The restructuring won’t wrap up until fiscal 2027.
Estée Lauder is losing ground in the market it once dominated. The company holds roughly 13% of global prestige beauty while L’Oréal pulls away with diversified revenue across mass and luxury. Korean skincare brands, digitally native competitors, and acquirers like Puig are winning by scooping up indie labels and scaling them faster than EL can respond.
The Lauder family controls 82% of the voting power, making the company effectively activist-proof. After Leonard Lauder’s death in June 2025, the family sold $1 billion in shares at $90 to pay taxes. The stock then fell to $66 before recovering. No outside investor can force a change in strategy, no matter how far the stock falls.
Estée Lauder has beaten earnings four quarters in a row. Q4 revenue of $3.63 billion topped estimates by $80 million and adjusted EPS doubled year over year. Fiscal 2027 guidance calls for $3.10 to $3.35 in adjusted EPS - above the $3.18 consensus - with organic sales growth of 3% to 5% and an operating margin target of 12.7% to 13.5%.
The brands are selling again. Fragrance revenue - led by Le Labo, Tom Ford, and Kilian Paris - grew 10% for the full year. Mainland China sales grew 12% to $3 billion. Asia travel retail is recovering. Cost cuts are on track to save over $1 billion annually. Multiple analysts raised price targets after the beat - Goldman Sachs to $112, Telsey to $108.
At $98, the stock sits 72% below its 2022 peak of $350. Free cash flow more than doubled to $1.3 billion. Full-year revenue hit $15 billion with gross margin at 75.5%, up 150 basis points. The new CEO’s “Beauty Reimagined” plan is pushing into Amazon and TikTok while pulling out of department stores.
At roughly 30x forward earnings - a premium to L’Oréal - Estée Lauder is priced for a turnaround that isn’t done yet. Operating margin is 11.2%, well below the 15%+ it held before the decline. Tariffs added a $100 million headwind this year. The restructuring won’t wrap up until fiscal 2027.
Estée Lauder is losing ground in the market it once dominated. The company holds roughly 13% of global prestige beauty while L’Oréal pulls away with diversified revenue across mass and luxury. Korean skincare brands, digitally native competitors, and acquirers like Puig are winning by scooping up indie labels and scaling them faster than EL can respond.
The Lauder family controls 82% of the voting power, making the company effectively activist-proof. After Leonard Lauder’s death in June 2025, the family sold $1 billion in shares at $90 to pay taxes. The stock then fell to $66 before recovering. No outside investor can force a change in strategy, no matter how far the stock falls.
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