Moderna made $19 billion in a single year selling COVID vaccines. That was 2022. Last year, revenue was $1.9 billion. A 90% drop.
The pandemic money is gone, and Moderna is racing to prove it’s more than a one-hit wonder. This week brought two big developments: a $2.25 billion patent settlement that clears a major legal cloud, and EU approval for the first-ever single-shot flu and COVID vaccine. The stock jumped over 16% on the news.
But Moderna is still losing money - $2.8 billion last year - and burning through its $8.1 billion cash pile. The FDA initially refused to even review their standalone flu vaccine before reversing course, with a decision now due in August. And the cancer vaccines everyone’s excited about? Still in trials, but early results cut melanoma recurrence by nearly half.
Comeback story or slow bleed?
Here's how the community voted
The combo vaccine is a game-changer - One shot for both flu and COVID, just approved in Europe. No one else has this yet. It’s targeting a $5 billion annual market with peak sales estimated at over $1 billion. The standalone flu vaccine could add another $1 billion on top.
Cancer could be even bigger - Moderna’s cancer vaccines with Merck cut melanoma recurrence by nearly half in trials, with testing now across lung, bladder, and kidney cancers too. Analysts estimate $1 billion+ in peak sales from cancer alone, and the technology could expand to other types.
They’re cutting hard to bridge the gap - Moderna slashed operating costs by $2.2 billion last year and is targeting break-even by 2028. With $8.1 billion in cash, a cleared legal slate, and multiple billion-dollar products in the pipeline, the runway is there if they execute.
Revenue has fallen off a cliff - From $19.3 billion to $1.9 billion in three years. COVID demand has collapsed and nothing has filled the gap. The RSV vaccine they launched? Barely making a dent against competitors who got there first.
The cash is burning fast - Moderna lost $2.8 billion last year. Even with $8.1 billion in reserves, that burn rate is brutal. Break-even by 2028 assumes the combo vaccine and flu shots both get approved and sell well. That’s a lot of ifs.
The FDA is a wildcard - The agency initially refused to review Moderna’s flu vaccine, then reversed itself days later. Under the current administration, vaccine approvals have gotten harder to predict. If the combo vaccine hits a similar wall in the U.S., the whole turnaround timeline slips.
The combo vaccine is a game-changer - One shot for both flu and COVID, just approved in Europe. No one else has this yet. It’s targeting a $5 billion annual market with peak sales estimated at over $1 billion. The standalone flu vaccine could add another $1 billion on top.
Cancer could be even bigger - Moderna’s cancer vaccines with Merck cut melanoma recurrence by nearly half in trials, with testing now across lung, bladder, and kidney cancers too. Analysts estimate $1 billion+ in peak sales from cancer alone, and the technology could expand to other types.
They’re cutting hard to bridge the gap - Moderna slashed operating costs by $2.2 billion last year and is targeting break-even by 2028. With $8.1 billion in cash, a cleared legal slate, and multiple billion-dollar products in the pipeline, the runway is there if they execute.
Revenue has fallen off a cliff - From $19.3 billion to $1.9 billion in three years. COVID demand has collapsed and nothing has filled the gap. The RSV vaccine they launched? Barely making a dent against competitors who got there first.
The cash is burning fast - Moderna lost $2.8 billion last year. Even with $8.1 billion in reserves, that burn rate is brutal. Break-even by 2028 assumes the combo vaccine and flu shots both get approved and sell well. That’s a lot of ifs.
The FDA is a wildcard - The agency initially refused to review Moderna’s flu vaccine, then reversed itself days later. Under the current administration, vaccine approvals have gotten harder to predict. If the combo vaccine hits a similar wall in the U.S., the whole turnaround timeline slips.
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IMHO this is a speculative diamond, but requires a lot to go their way. Cost cutting needs to go to plan over the next few years. I hope for everyone's sake the cancer vaccine stuff works out. If it does, and they can lean up the business, then then it's not hard to imagine the current valuation representing a good buy. I'd be in no rush to buy though as it stands, plenty of time for all of that to play out.