Here's how the community voted
2026 production expected toward the lower end of 2025’s forecast range. Q3 production down 4% (3rd consecutive quarterly decline). Natural resource depletion evidenced in multiple mines.
Multiple analysts note stock has reached their targets after a ~184% rise YTD. May be priced for perfection while rising costs eat into margins.
Natascha Viljoen becomes CEO Jan 1, 2026 - unknown how she’ll balance capital allocation, gold vs copper growth & portfolio strategy.
2026 production expected toward the lower end of 2025’s forecast range. Q3 production down 4% (3rd consecutive quarterly decline). Natural resource depletion evidenced in multiple mines.
Multiple analysts note stock has reached their targets after a ~184% rise YTD. May be priced for perfection while rising costs eat into margins.
Natascha Viljoen becomes CEO Jan 1, 2026 - unknown how she’ll balance capital allocation, gold vs copper growth & portfolio strategy.
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I guess this is almost just a vote on Gold. IMO despite the run I think there's limited downside. Maybe we don't see the $5k-$6k forecasts realise anytime soon. But even with a pullback there's plenty of scope for serious cash generation and 14.3x earnings suggests some downside priced in.
Only thing is silver tends to rally towards the end of a gold bull market and that's exactly what we're seeing now. I think central bank buying is part of a huge long-term shift though and elevated prices will be here to stay. NEM will probably do ok, although if I was buying today I think there's better hunting in smaller cap gold producers.
Out of curiosity I did a little search on their recent ESG news: their sustainability report from 2024 talks about 5 fatalities, and they are listed in several violation trackers for ocean dumping (which led some investor to exclude them from their portfolio), dust emissions, spills, etc.
Not sure that's something I'd be keen to invest on, even though the numbers seem good
Relatively well run company (but admittedly, it’s hard to be sure of this as separating geological surprises from managerial ability is basically impossible) so there is something to like for a long term shareholder. That said, gold is opaque in the short term and I am uncertain if the headlines of why it rose this year are correct. I wonder if it rose on a supply shortfall. So much of mines production has weak reporting or low trust as a lot of it is in Russia. If the attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries are being effective, it’s more likely Russia would instruct its miners to reduce usage and avoid the burden on consumers - thus reducing output and prices rising with all else equal.
I can’t pin my view on gold going forward though. I am still surprised as to how quietly the European countries let their pact (CBGA) to limit gold sales expire. Wha actually happened the behind the scenes are more importantly, will they start selling again? Above ground reserves are very impactful on prices.
Miners of a nonproductive asset don’t have it easy. They have to accept the vagaries of where prices go and run their mines, often in jurisdictions that aren’t easy to do so, and there’s geologic challenges as always.
I would pass on NEM, but there are some reasons to like it if you must own gold exposure.
Answer to the rise is almost certainly central bank buying. China in particular severely under-report their gold reserves.