Live Yum Brands Vote →
← Back to Current Poll
Closed Voting

Diamond or Dud?

The weekly showdown where investors decide if controversial stocks are hidden gems or complete trash

⚡ A few minutes a week to sharpen your market knowledge.

Diamond or Dud is for entertainment purposes only. AssetRoom does not provide financial advice. Figures collected prior to poll publication.
Poll Ran
Dec 29 – Jan 05, 2026
P/E Ratio
14.3
Gold Price
~$4,300
Market Cap
~$115B
Q3 '25 Free Cash Flow
$1.6B

What's your verdict on NEM?

Here's how the community voted

60%
40%
💎 Diamond 💩 Dud
💎
Diamond Case
  • Gold price of $4,300/oz (up >50% YTD) supporting strong profitability against production costs of $1,566/oz, with 2026 forecasts ranging from $5,000-$6,000/oz.
  • P/E of 14.3x is nearly half the 25.8x peer group average, despite having essentially no net debt (cash holdings roughly equal total debt).
  • Central banks are projected to purchase 755-900 tonnes in 2026 (nearly double the pre-2022 historical average), driven by de-dollarization, geopolitical hedging, and reserve diversification, which may put a floor under gold prices.
💩
Dud Case
  • 2026 production expected toward the lower end of 2025’s forecast range. Q3 production down 4% (3rd consecutive quarterly decline). Natural resource depletion evidenced in multiple mines.

  • Multiple analysts note stock has reached their targets after a ~184% rise YTD. May be priced for perfection while rising costs eat into margins.

  • Natascha Viljoen becomes CEO Jan 1, 2026 - unknown how she’ll balance capital allocation, gold vs copper growth & portfolio strategy.

💎
Diamond Case
  • Gold price of $4,300/oz (up >50% YTD) supporting strong profitability against production costs of $1,566/oz, with 2026 forecasts ranging from $5,000-$6,000/oz.
  • P/E of 14.3x is nearly half the 25.8x peer group average, despite having essentially no net debt (cash holdings roughly equal total debt).
  • Central banks are projected to purchase 755-900 tonnes in 2026 (nearly double the pre-2022 historical average), driven by de-dollarization, geopolitical hedging, and reserve diversification, which may put a floor under gold prices.
💩
Dud Case
  • 2026 production expected toward the lower end of 2025’s forecast range. Q3 production down 4% (3rd consecutive quarterly decline). Natural resource depletion evidenced in multiple mines.

  • Multiple analysts note stock has reached their targets after a ~184% rise YTD. May be priced for perfection while rising costs eat into margins.

  • Natascha Viljoen becomes CEO Jan 1, 2026 - unknown how she’ll balance capital allocation, gold vs copper growth & portfolio strategy.

Discussion

This poll has closed. New comments cannot be added.

@cattoginger · 7 months ago (2 points)

Relatively well run company (but admittedly, it’s hard to be sure of this as separating geological surprises from managerial ability is basically impossible) so there is something to like for a long term shareholder. That said, gold is opaque in the short term and I am uncertain if the headlines of why it rose this year are correct. I wonder if it rose on a supply shortfall. So much of mines production has weak reporting or low trust as a lot of it is in Russia. If the attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries are being effective, it’s more likely Russia would instruct its miners to reduce usage and avoid the burden on consumers - thus reducing output and prices rising with all else equal.

I can’t pin my view on gold going forward though. I am still surprised as to how quietly the European countries let their pact (CBGA) to limit gold sales expire. Wha actually happened the behind the scenes are more importantly, will they start selling again? Above ground reserves are very impactful on prices.

Miners of a nonproductive asset don’t have it easy. They have to accept the vagaries of where prices go and run their mines, often in jurisdictions that aren’t easy to do so, and there’s geologic challenges as always.

I would pass on NEM, but there are some reasons to like it if you must own gold exposure.

👍 2 upvotes
@sire_frugalman · 7 months ago (1 point)

Answer to the rise is almost certainly central bank buying. China in particular severely under-report their gold reserves.

👍 1 upvote
@sire_frugalman · 7 months ago (1 point)

I guess this is almost just a vote on Gold. IMO despite the run I think there's limited downside. Maybe we don't see the $5k-$6k forecasts realise anytime soon. But even with a pullback there's plenty of scope for serious cash generation and 14.3x earnings suggests some downside priced in.

Only thing is silver tends to rally towards the end of a gold bull market and that's exactly what we're seeing now. I think central bank buying is part of a huge long-term shift though and elevated prices will be here to stay. NEM will probably do ok, although if I was buying today I think there's better hunting in smaller cap gold producers.

👍 1 upvote
@m15o · 7 months ago (1 point)

Out of curiosity I did a little search on their recent ESG news: their sustainability report from 2024 talks about 5 fatalities, and they are listed in several violation trackers for ocean dumping (which led some investor to exclude them from their portfolio), dust emissions, spills, etc.

Not sure that's something I'd be keen to invest on, even though the numbers seem good

👍 1 upvote
💬 4 comments

Share your vote. See who agrees.

$NEM - Diamond or Dud?

💎 🟦🟦🟦🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜ 60%
💩 🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 40%

https://www.assetroom.net/p/6vdhYM
Or share on