This week, Apple announced that Google’s Gemini AI will power the next generation of Siri and Apple Intelligence features. Apple evaluated OpenAI and Anthropic but chose Google, publicly stating that “Google’s AI technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models.” Anthropic was reportedly rejected because its fees were “too high.”
The deal means Gemini will underpin AI features across 2.3+ billion Apple devices and 1.5 billion daily Siri requests. Bloomberg reports Apple is paying approximately $1 billion annually for the custom 1.2 trillion parameter model. However, Apple maintains full control - processing queries on its own servers with no user data reaching Google.
GOOGL crossed $4 trillion market cap on the news, and the stock gained 65% in 2025. But the partnership raises as many questions as it answers: Does this validate Google’s AI leadership, or does Apple’s tight control suggest AI models are becoming interchangeable commodities? And with Apple reportedly still exploring OpenAI and Perplexity as Safari search options, is Google strengthening its moat - or watching it erode from multiple directions?
Here's how the community voted
Search is being disrupted - Apple’s Eddy Cue testified that Safari searches declined for the first time in 22 years, with users switching to ChatGPT and Perplexity. ChatGPT now has 800M weekly users and only 46% of Gen Z start searches on Google.
Ad model under threat - AI search delivers direct answers without clicks - potentially obsoleting Google’s core business. Analysts estimate even 1% market share loss equals ~$2B in annual revenue.
Antitrust walls closing in - Google is a convicted monopolist in both search (2024) and ad tech (2025). The $20B Apple search deal is now limited to 1-year non-exclusive terms, and Apple is exploring adding OpenAI and Perplexity as Safari options.
Search is being disrupted - Apple’s Eddy Cue testified that Safari searches declined for the first time in 22 years, with users switching to ChatGPT and Perplexity. ChatGPT now has 800M weekly users and only 46% of Gen Z start searches on Google.
Ad model under threat - AI search delivers direct answers without clicks - potentially obsoleting Google’s core business. Analysts estimate even 1% market share loss equals ~$2B in annual revenue.
Antitrust walls closing in - Google is a convicted monopolist in both search (2024) and ad tech (2025). The $20B Apple search deal is now limited to 1-year non-exclusive terms, and Apple is exploring adding OpenAI and Perplexity as Safari options.
This poll has closed. New comments cannot be added.
Yes, Gemini is a solid model, and powering Siri, if done well, puts them in a situation every other AI company would have dreamed.
Recent releases like Gemini 3, the new Nano Banana and the deal with Apple mean that Google officially looks like a leader in the AI race. They are well positioned on most common AI use cases and their distribution through Google Workspace for B2B and Android for B2C is unmatched.
The threat to their Search and Ad divisions don't seem too risky since they are already paving the way for the future pivots, should they need it.
To me this is a clear diamond!
This feels like a tougher one, but on balance, I'll mark it as a dud though it might just be a short term risk.
There were always some threats to Google's Search business in tougher of volume of traffic, namely people going to Amazon or other places directly to search for the product they needed. AI tools, like Claude and ChatGPT, might take away more of that.
All that said, Google has a heck of an advertising business where they can put ads within their AI responses over time and Youtube can continue to improve monetization with better targeting and growth in viewership around the world.
I'll admit I may not be the right age group to properly assess this. I only use AI bots like Claude/ChatGPT 1-2x per month when I need more in depth analysis or I have way less knowledge. Day to day, I still use Google because my instinct remains to open the search results myself. Google AI has actually done a good job of summarizing my needs.
One thing to Google's advantage is they have tremendous scale and they make money. Eventually, I think ChatGPT/Claude/etc. will have to charge more for their services, or they have to build a whole advertising business. Google already has that advertising business to monetize with and with the extreme scale of traffic they see, the costs to generate AI responses should be lower even if it's just because of identical searches by multiple users that don't have to be "generated" live as much as they are just fetched. I wonder if younger users who did not grow up with Google (Ask Jeeves, etc.) may view this differently.
One unknown along all of these lines is when we will have "too much" highly targeted advertising inventory in the world. Meta is presumably the best at this, and Google and others are good too, but I can't fully assess this. Are 3rd parties without a walled garden getting better (using tools like the trade desk, etc.) and enough so that advertising margins will compress over time? I've never been able to wrap my hands around advertising business models in part because of this. It was easier to say how much more targeted things could get with Facebook knowing our age and location, but I feel a bit lost on the broader landscape of where all companies are. If anyone knows how to learn more about this very specific topic, maybe a book on it, please let me know.