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Diamond or Dud?

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Diamond or Dud is for entertainment purposes only. AssetRoom does not provide financial advice. Figures collected prior to poll publication.
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Why we're voting on BSP this week

Berkshire Hathaway just agreed to invest another $330 million in a company you might not have heard of. On Wednesday, Berkshire committed to buying 10 million shares of Bending Spoons at $33 apiece in a private placement, bringing its total stake to roughly $930 million. Stock surged about 40% to around $53.

Bending Spoons is an Italian software company that buys apps with huge user bases and squeezes them for profit. Since 2023 it has acquired Evernote, WeTransfer, Airtable, Meetup, Eventbrite, Vimeo, and AOL, with a deal for Miro pending. The playbook: buy the app, cut most of the staff, raise prices. Evernote lost most of its U.S. team. Prices have roughly tripled since the acquisition. Downloads dropped 64% - but revenue climbed 39%.

Revenue hit $1.31 billion in 2025, more than triple what it was two years prior, and the company guided $2.8 billion for 2026. But only 3% of last quarter’s growth was organic. The rest was bought via acquisitions.

Berkshire’s in for $930 million. The user bases shrink, but the revenue doesn’t.

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d h m s
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Net Debt
~$4.1B
Market Cap
~$32B
Monthly Users
500M
Fy26 Rev. Guidance
~$2.8B (+115%)

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Diamond Case
  • Berkshire Hathaway invested $600M at BSP’s July IPO and committed another $330M three months later at $33 a share - before the stock ran to $53. The subscription model generates 93% recurring revenue with 94% net retention across 500 million monthly active users. Operating profit hit $278M in 2025 on $1.31B in revenue.
  • Revenue more than tripled from $387M in 2023 to $1.31B in 2025. Management guided $2.78-2.82B for 2026, and Q2 revenue of $704M already puts them on pace. Airtable closed in September for $1.285B, and a deal for Miro ($1.355B) is pending. The company still has $1.28B in undrawn credit. The acquisition pipeline isn’t slowing down.
  • BSP picks up products at steep discounts to what venture capital once paid for them. Miro’s peak private valuation was $17.5B - BSP is paying $1.355B. Evernote’s revenue rose 39% after the acquisition despite the cuts. The company generated $410M in free cash flow last year. The numbers haven’t lied yet.
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Dud Case
  • Only 3% of Q2 revenue growth was organic - the other 123 percentage points came from acquisitions. Strip out the deals and this company is barely growing. The model needs a constant supply of undervalued software to buy. Net debt sits at $4.1B with leverage at 2.4x, and the pending Miro deal will add another ~$1.4B.
  • The playbook extracts, it doesn’t build. Evernote lost most of its U.S. staff, prices roughly tripled, downloads fell 64%. WeTransfer cut 75% of its workforce. Users across the portfolio are migrating to Notion, Google Drive, and other alternatives. Revenue can only grow from price hikes for so long before the user base hollows out entirely.
  • Insider lock-up expires December 28 - ten weeks away. Pre-IPO shareholders are sitting on a stock that’s nearly doubled since July. BSP has been public for three and a half months with zero full earnings cycles as a listed company. Berkshire’s placement was priced at $33, well below where the stock trades now.
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Diamond Case
  • Berkshire Hathaway invested $600M at BSP’s July IPO and committed another $330M three months later at $33 a share - before the stock ran to $53. The subscription model generates 93% recurring revenue with 94% net retention across 500 million monthly active users. Operating profit hit $278M in 2025 on $1.31B in revenue.
  • Revenue more than tripled from $387M in 2023 to $1.31B in 2025. Management guided $2.78-2.82B for 2026, and Q2 revenue of $704M already puts them on pace. Airtable closed in September for $1.285B, and a deal for Miro ($1.355B) is pending. The company still has $1.28B in undrawn credit. The acquisition pipeline isn’t slowing down.
  • BSP picks up products at steep discounts to what venture capital once paid for them. Miro’s peak private valuation was $17.5B - BSP is paying $1.355B. Evernote’s revenue rose 39% after the acquisition despite the cuts. The company generated $410M in free cash flow last year. The numbers haven’t lied yet.
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Dud Case
  • Only 3% of Q2 revenue growth was organic - the other 123 percentage points came from acquisitions. Strip out the deals and this company is barely growing. The model needs a constant supply of undervalued software to buy. Net debt sits at $4.1B with leverage at 2.4x, and the pending Miro deal will add another ~$1.4B.
  • The playbook extracts, it doesn’t build. Evernote lost most of its U.S. staff, prices roughly tripled, downloads fell 64%. WeTransfer cut 75% of its workforce. Users across the portfolio are migrating to Notion, Google Drive, and other alternatives. Revenue can only grow from price hikes for so long before the user base hollows out entirely.
  • Insider lock-up expires December 28 - ten weeks away. Pre-IPO shareholders are sitting on a stock that’s nearly doubled since July. BSP has been public for three and a half months with zero full earnings cycles as a listed company. Berkshire’s placement was priced at $33, well below where the stock trades now.

Discussion

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@sire_frugalman · 1 day ago (1 point)

Feels hard to get behind a company that is so explicitly buying assets in decline, without the evidence they're actually turning around these products? A P/E firm would be looking to relist or sell, but it's less clear what the end goal is here - just retain customers for as long as possible? On the other hand, if you want exposure to AI on the cheap, one option might be to hold BSP and just wait for the bubble to pop, lol.

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$BSP - Diamond or Dud?

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