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Diamond or Dud?

The weekly showdown where investors decide if controversial stocks are hidden gems or complete trash

⚡ A few minutes a week to sharpen your market knowledge.

Diamond or Dud is for entertainment purposes only. AssetRoom does not provide financial advice. Figures collected prior to poll publication.
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Why we're voting on BA this week

The Pentagon just gave Boeing both keys to America’s fighter jet future.

On Monday, the Navy awarded Boeing a $20 billion contract to build the F/A-XX, its next-generation carrier-based strike fighter. Eighteen months earlier, the Air Force gave Boeing another $20 billion to develop the F-47. No other company in the world is building sixth-generation fighters for any branch of the U.S. military. Boeing beat Northrop Grumman for one, Lockheed Martin for the other.

That’s $40 billion in fighter contracts. And Boeing is still losing money. The company posted a $0.67 loss per share last quarter despite $24.6 billion in revenue and delivering 171 commercial aircraft - the most since 2018. Total backlog just hit a record $715 billion. But Boeing also carries $46 billion in debt and hasn’t paid a dividend since March 2020.

Both fighter contracts in hand, a record backlog, and the stock is still 55% below its 2019 peak.

BA
Boeing Co.
Poll Ran
Oct 02 – Oct 09, 2026
Backlog
$715B
Net Debt
~$26B
Market Cap
~$152B
Q2 Revenue
$24.6B (+8% YoY)

What's your verdict on BA?

Here's how the community voted

50%
50%
💎 Diamond 💩 Dud
💎
Diamond Case
  • Boeing is the only company developing sixth-generation fighters for the U.S. military. The $20B Air Force F-47 (awarded March 2025) and $20B Navy F/A-XX (September 2026) lock Boeing into decades of defense revenue that hasn’t started flowing yet. Boeing beat Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman respectively. No one else can enter. These contracts run for decades.
  • Total backlog hit a record $715B in Q2, including 6,200+ commercial aircraft worth $597B. Deliveries jumped to 171 last quarter, the highest quarterly total since 2018. Defense revenue grew 13% to $7.5B. Revenue of $24.6B beat estimates, and Boeing is guiding for $1-$3B in positive free cash flow this year - a milestone after years of cash burn.
  • At ~$192, the stock sits 55% below its 2019 peak of $430 and 24% below its January 2026 high of $254. The analyst consensus target is ~$274, implying over 40% upside. If Boeing hits its production ramp and starts converting that $715B backlog into cash, the current price assumes the turnaround fails.
💩
Dud Case
  • Boeing posted a loss of $0.67 per share last quarter despite $24.6B in revenue. The company carries ~$46B in debt against ~$20B in cash. The $40B in fighter contracts are development programs that will burn cash for years before generating profit. The Air Force One program alone took a $280M charge last quarter.
  • The 737 MAX has been a rolling quality crisis since 2018 - a door plug blew off mid-flight in January 2024, a wiring defect halted deliveries in March 2026. Boeing had $2.78B in order cancellations in H1 2026, mostly 737s. Airbus has delivered more aircraft than Boeing every year since 2019.
  • $40B in fighter contracts sounds enormous until you stack it against $46B in debt. The defense segment posted negative operating margin last quarter. Lockheed and Northrop run profitable defense businesses and pay dividends - Boeing hasn’t paid one since March 2020. Boeing has never run a commercial turnaround and two fighter programs at once.
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Diamond Case
  • Boeing is the only company developing sixth-generation fighters for the U.S. military. The $20B Air Force F-47 (awarded March 2025) and $20B Navy F/A-XX (September 2026) lock Boeing into decades of defense revenue that hasn’t started flowing yet. Boeing beat Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman respectively. No one else can enter. These contracts run for decades.
  • Total backlog hit a record $715B in Q2, including 6,200+ commercial aircraft worth $597B. Deliveries jumped to 171 last quarter, the highest quarterly total since 2018. Defense revenue grew 13% to $7.5B. Revenue of $24.6B beat estimates, and Boeing is guiding for $1-$3B in positive free cash flow this year - a milestone after years of cash burn.
  • At ~$192, the stock sits 55% below its 2019 peak of $430 and 24% below its January 2026 high of $254. The analyst consensus target is ~$274, implying over 40% upside. If Boeing hits its production ramp and starts converting that $715B backlog into cash, the current price assumes the turnaround fails.
💩
Dud Case
  • Boeing posted a loss of $0.67 per share last quarter despite $24.6B in revenue. The company carries ~$46B in debt against ~$20B in cash. The $40B in fighter contracts are development programs that will burn cash for years before generating profit. The Air Force One program alone took a $280M charge last quarter.
  • The 737 MAX has been a rolling quality crisis since 2018 - a door plug blew off mid-flight in January 2024, a wiring defect halted deliveries in March 2026. Boeing had $2.78B in order cancellations in H1 2026, mostly 737s. Airbus has delivered more aircraft than Boeing every year since 2019.
  • $40B in fighter contracts sounds enormous until you stack it against $46B in debt. The defense segment posted negative operating margin last quarter. Lockheed and Northrop run profitable defense businesses and pay dividends - Boeing hasn’t paid one since March 2020. Boeing has never run a commercial turnaround and two fighter programs at once.
Read our AI summaries of BA's quarterly and annual reports

Discussion

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$BA - Diamond or Dud?

💎 🟦🟦🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 50%
💩 🟫🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 50%

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