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Diamond or Dud?

The weekly showdown where investors decide if controversial stocks are hidden gems or complete trash

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Diamond or Dud is for entertainment purposes only. AssetRoom does not provide financial advice. Figures collected prior to poll publication.
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Why we're voting on CEG this week

Google just signed a deal for 3,590 megawatts of power from Constellation Energy, including 890 MW of new nuclear capacity from $4.3 billion in reactor upgrades across 11 reactors at six sites. Stock jumped 12% on Tuesday.

Google isn’t first in line. Microsoft is paying $1.6 billion to restart Three Mile Island. Amazon is getting 690 MW from Calvert Cliffs. Meta locked up the entire Clinton plant in Illinois. Walmart signed a 15-year deal at Dresden. Five of the biggest companies on earth now have long-term power contracts with a single utility.

Constellation operates the largest commercial nuclear fleet in the U.S. - roughly 22 GW of generating capacity. Management raised EPS guidance to $11.50-$12.50 after beating Q2 estimates, roughly 28% growth. But the stock is still down more than 20% this year, and most of the revenue from these contracts won’t arrive for years.

Five corporate giants signed, but the stock barely moved off its 2026 lows.

CEG
Constellation Energy
Poll Ran
Oct 09 – Oct 16, 2026
Market Cap
~$103B (-20% YTD)
Total Debt
~$25B
Forward P/E
~23x
Nuclear Fleet
22GW

What's your verdict on CEG?

Here's how the community voted

100%
💎 Diamond 💩 Dud
💎
Diamond Case
  • Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Walmart have all signed long-term power deals with Constellation. Nuclear runs at a 93% capacity factor - around the clock, carbon-free. AI data center power demand is projected to more than double by 2030. Constellation is the only company with a fleet large enough to meet that demand.
  • Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.55 beat estimates. Management raised full-year guidance to $11.50-$12.50, roughly 28% growth over FY2025. FCF guidance for 2026-2027 totals $8.4B. IRA production tax credits provide up to $15/MWh for existing nuclear plants through 2032. The Calpine acquisition boosted Constellation’s revenue base by more than 50%.
  • At ~$285, the stock sits 31% below its October 2025 all-time high of $413. Analyst consensus target is ~$350 and the majority rate it Buy. TMI’s restart is on track for late 2027 after FERC cleared the grid interconnection issue. The revenue pipeline is locked in but hasn’t started flowing.
💩
Dud Case
  • Revenue from these deals is years away. TMI won’t restart until late 2027. Amazon’s Calvert Cliffs expansion involves reactor uprates that take time to build out. Google’s reactor upgrades start delivering in 2028. The stock already ran to $413 on the promise of these deals and has spent all of 2026 giving it back.
  • Constellation carries ~$25B in total debt after the Calpine acquisition. PJM’s $325/MW-day capacity price cap has already been binding for three consecutive auction years - without it, prices would have cleared at $555/MW-day. Multiple analysts have cut their price targets this year. At ~23x forward earnings, CEG trades at a premium to Vistra (~16x) and above the utility sector average.
  • Only 890 MW of Google’s 3,590 MW deal is actually new nuclear capacity from reactor upgrades. The rest is from Constellation’s broader power portfolio. Nuclear projects have a long history of cost overruns and timeline slippage. Constellation is betting it can upgrade 11 reactors, restart TMI, and integrate a $27B acquisition all at once.
💎
Diamond Case
  • Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Walmart have all signed long-term power deals with Constellation. Nuclear runs at a 93% capacity factor - around the clock, carbon-free. AI data center power demand is projected to more than double by 2030. Constellation is the only company with a fleet large enough to meet that demand.
  • Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.55 beat estimates. Management raised full-year guidance to $11.50-$12.50, roughly 28% growth over FY2025. FCF guidance for 2026-2027 totals $8.4B. IRA production tax credits provide up to $15/MWh for existing nuclear plants through 2032. The Calpine acquisition boosted Constellation’s revenue base by more than 50%.
  • At ~$285, the stock sits 31% below its October 2025 all-time high of $413. Analyst consensus target is ~$350 and the majority rate it Buy. TMI’s restart is on track for late 2027 after FERC cleared the grid interconnection issue. The revenue pipeline is locked in but hasn’t started flowing.
💩
Dud Case
  • Revenue from these deals is years away. TMI won’t restart until late 2027. Amazon’s Calvert Cliffs expansion involves reactor uprates that take time to build out. Google’s reactor upgrades start delivering in 2028. The stock already ran to $413 on the promise of these deals and has spent all of 2026 giving it back.
  • Constellation carries ~$25B in total debt after the Calpine acquisition. PJM’s $325/MW-day capacity price cap has already been binding for three consecutive auction years - without it, prices would have cleared at $555/MW-day. Multiple analysts have cut their price targets this year. At ~23x forward earnings, CEG trades at a premium to Vistra (~16x) and above the utility sector average.
  • Only 890 MW of Google’s 3,590 MW deal is actually new nuclear capacity from reactor upgrades. The rest is from Constellation’s broader power portfolio. Nuclear projects have a long history of cost overruns and timeline slippage. Constellation is betting it can upgrade 11 reactors, restart TMI, and integrate a $27B acquisition all at once.
Read our AI summaries of CEG's quarterly and annual reports

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$CEG - Diamond or Dud?

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