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Diamond or Dud?

The weekly showdown where investors decide if controversial stocks are hidden gems or complete trash

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Diamond or Dud is for entertainment purposes only. AssetRoom does not provide financial advice. Figures collected prior to poll publication.
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Why we're voting on CRWD this week

Two years ago, CrowdStrike pushed a bad update and crashed 8.5 million Windows computers in a single day. Planes grounded. Hospitals froze. Banks went dark. It was the biggest IT outage in history, costing businesses an estimated $5 billion. Delta is still suing them for $500 million.

Yesterday, the CEO called this the best quarter CrowdStrike has ever had. Revenue hit $1.47 billion, up 26%. New recurring revenue hit a record $333 million - up 51% from a year ago. Guidance beat. The stock surged on the news.

CrowdStrike is now trading near its all-time high. At ~$222, the company is worth more than it was before the outage ever happened. Market cap sits around $225 billion on roughly $6 billion in annual revenue. That’s 37x sales and north of 175x forward earnings.

Record quarter from the company behind the biggest IT outage in history. At 37x sales, the comeback is already in the price. Everything from here is about what comes next.

CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
Poll Closes In
d h m s
New poll every Friday
Market Cap
~$225B
Q2 Revenue
1.46B (+26%)
Forward P/E
175x
Net New Arr
$333M (+51%)

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Diamond Case
  • CrowdStrike just posted the best quarter in its history. Revenue of $1.47 billion beat estimates, adjusted EPS of $0.31 topped the $0.29 consensus, and management raised full-year guidance above Wall Street’s numbers. Operating margin expanded 350 basis points to 25%. Free cash flow hit a record $377 million.
  • AI is making cyberattacks harder to stop, and companies are responding by consolidating dozens of security tools into one platform. CrowdStrike is one of three dominant players alongside Palo Alto Networks and Microsoft. Nearly 3,000 customers have already adopted the Flex subscription model.
  • The outage fallout is mostly behind them. The shareholder class action was dismissed. The passenger class action was dismissed and upheld on appeal. Delta’s $500 million lawsuit has been narrowed after fraud claims were thrown out - CrowdStrike says its actual liability is under $10 million. Customer retention stayed strong through the whole thing.
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Dud Case
  • At 175x forward earnings and 37x sales, CrowdStrike is one of the priciest large-caps on the market. Annual revenue is roughly $6 billion, and the $225 billion price tag already bakes in years of near-perfect growth. At this multiple, even a slight miss could wipe out a full year of gains overnight.
  • The outage exposed a real structural risk. CrowdStrike’s software runs at the kernel level - the deepest access an application can have - on millions of machines. One bad update took down airlines, hospitals, and banks worldwide. Delta’s $500 million lawsuit is still in court, and the claim that liability is under $10 million hasn’t been tested by a jury.
  • CEO George Kurtz has been selling stock through a pre-arranged plan, moving 18,000 to 20,000 shares every few days through August. Microsoft Defender holds roughly 14% of endpoint protection market share, SentinelOne sits around 10%, and Palo Alto Networks is making an aggressive push to lock companies into its own platform.
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Diamond Case
  • CrowdStrike just posted the best quarter in its history. Revenue of $1.47 billion beat estimates, adjusted EPS of $0.31 topped the $0.29 consensus, and management raised full-year guidance above Wall Street’s numbers. Operating margin expanded 350 basis points to 25%. Free cash flow hit a record $377 million.
  • AI is making cyberattacks harder to stop, and companies are responding by consolidating dozens of security tools into one platform. CrowdStrike is one of three dominant players alongside Palo Alto Networks and Microsoft. Nearly 3,000 customers have already adopted the Flex subscription model.
  • The outage fallout is mostly behind them. The shareholder class action was dismissed. The passenger class action was dismissed and upheld on appeal. Delta’s $500 million lawsuit has been narrowed after fraud claims were thrown out - CrowdStrike says its actual liability is under $10 million. Customer retention stayed strong through the whole thing.
💩
Dud Case
  • At 175x forward earnings and 37x sales, CrowdStrike is one of the priciest large-caps on the market. Annual revenue is roughly $6 billion, and the $225 billion price tag already bakes in years of near-perfect growth. At this multiple, even a slight miss could wipe out a full year of gains overnight.
  • The outage exposed a real structural risk. CrowdStrike’s software runs at the kernel level - the deepest access an application can have - on millions of machines. One bad update took down airlines, hospitals, and banks worldwide. Delta’s $500 million lawsuit is still in court, and the claim that liability is under $10 million hasn’t been tested by a jury.
  • CEO George Kurtz has been selling stock through a pre-arranged plan, moving 18,000 to 20,000 shares every few days through August. Microsoft Defender holds roughly 14% of endpoint protection market share, SentinelOne sits around 10%, and Palo Alto Networks is making an aggressive push to lock companies into its own platform.
Read our AI summaries of CRWD's quarterly and annual reports

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$CRWD - Diamond or Dud?

💎 🟦🟦🟦🟦🟦⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 50%
💩 🟫🟫🟫🟫🟫⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 50%

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